Drift ice cruise

Hi,

I will be driving to Abashiri from Asahikawa on Feb 10 (morning) to catch drift ice, and then drive to Kushiro on 12 Feb (morning). What can I do to increase my chances of seeing drift ice on the Aurora cruise? The official daily drift ice report is only released shortly after 3pm on the same day (from my monitoring of the website) so this does not really help. I see recommendations to check the weather forecast. how do I check, what to look out for - the wind for the day? What is the benchmark etc?

Is it necessary to take both the cruises in Abashiri and Monbetsu?

do I really have to book the cruise in advance if it is just 2 of us? We only want to take the cruise when we can see drift ice, not keen if there is no drift ice.

what is the best time of cruise to take?

Is there an ideal and safe spot where drift ice is just at the shore and we can walk to it just to be close to it and touch it? Not keen in drift ice walking tours.

Also, if I drive from Abashiri Station to Shiretoko-Shari Station, would I be driving mostly on the coastal road, very close to the drift ice just like the Ryuhyo Monogatari Go train? Or should I just take the train and enjoy the train ride? Also looking to go to Oronko Rock, for which car would be better.

Thank you in advance for any sharing and recommendations.